Governor's Race Will Play Out on a National Stage

By Rosalind S. Helderman

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

When they last ran against each other four years ago, Democrat R. Creigh Deeds and Republican Robert F. McDonnell were little-known local politicians who battled to within 323 votes of each other out of 2 million cast in a race for attorney general.

This time, the two men with deep roots in the state will not only battle for Virginia's highest office, but will also do so in an election that is expected to draw intense national attention and be viewed as a bellwether for a president and his party.

McDonnell will campaign with a parade of Republican presidential hopefuls. Deeds will have new allies at his side as well: two popular Democratic senators, a well-liked Democratic governor who also can bring to bear the resources of the Democratic National Committee, and a figure Democrats hope will deliver Deeds to the governor's mansion: President Obama.

Although there is also a competitive governor's race in New Jersey, strategists in both parties see Virginia's as the contest more likely to shape perceptions heading into the midterm election year of 2010.

"The stakes truly couldn't be higher," said Phil Musser, former executive director of the Republican Governors Association. "It has all the elements to make the case for the legitimization of the Obama governing philosophy and strategy or the beginning of a GOP comeback. As such, this will take on a much larger life of its own."

The Virginia battle also should quiet pundits who thought the commonwealth was turning into a deep blue Democratic state. Both men have conservative credentials — Deeds has in the past been endorsed by the National Rifle Association — and both will have to work to build connections to Northern Virginia, home to most of the state's voters.

Experts believe each candidate will insist that his opponent is no longer the man he faced just four years ago. Deeds will accuse McDonnell of shying from a conservative record as a former protégé of religious conservative icon Pat Robertson. He will attempt to convince voters that McDonnell is a symbol for a Republican Party that has lost touch with a growing electorate of social moderates.

McDonnell will insist that Deeds flip-flopped to fend off more liberal former Alexandria delegate Brian Moran and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe in the bruising primary contest that ended yesterday. Deeds frequently explained shifting positions by describing himself as a "work in progress" on issues of concern to Democratic primary voters.

Their past go-round, which ended with a lengthy recount that left Deeds embittered and itching for another opportunity to knock off McDonnell, could carry with it a sense of déjà vu, with closely matched rivals battling into the fall.

"I think we had previews and coming attractions last time," said longtime Northern Virginia GOP strategist J. Kenneth Kling. "This time will be a real barnburner."

Their 2005 race for attorney general was dominated by law-and-order issues that carried more interest before the descent of the economic crisis. This time, the two will compete on a far broader range of issues. Already, they have unveiled competing plans to expand access to higher education and have signaled that they will fight to convince Northern Virginians that they are best positioned to solve transportation woes.

Republicans have begun suggesting that Deeds's defeat by McDonnell just four years ago means he is vulnerable. At the same time Kaine was sweeping the state by almost six points, Deeds, who hails from the second most sparsely populated in Virginia, was losing in the outer county suburbs of Loudoun and Prince Williams. Those jurisdictions were key to Kaine's victory. The fall race will likely be waged there once again, and McDonnell is preparing to tout himself as the more urban candidate who can convince suburbanites that he understands their concerns. McDonnell grew up in Fairfax and spent his adult life in Virginia Beach.

"McDonnell's image and family-oriented ads are made to order for suburban voters," said Larry J. Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia. "Deeds's rural demeanor and twang do not naturally attract well-educated suburbanites."

Experts expect the November race to see unprecedented levels of spending by the national parties. The Democratic Governors Association has invested about $3 million on independent expenditure ads attacking McDonnell and has signaled plans to spend freely between now and November. The DNC also will be directly involved in helping assemble a coordinated campaign aimed at turning out the Democratic vote and will probably launch independent expenditure ads of its own.

In addition, one party official said, Democrats are likely to tap Organizing for America, Obama's political network, to help in the final stages of the campaign in Virginia.

National Republicans have been just as aggressive in funneling money into the race. The Republican Governors Association has contributed about $2 million to McDonnell's campaign, while the Republican National Committee has given him about $1.5 million.

Republicans had been eager to pin Democrats' hopes on McAuliffe, whose previous political experience has been as chief fundraiser and confidante of President Bill Clinton. Clinton failed to carry Virginia in either of his presidential elections. They trained all their fire on McAuliffe during the Virginia Republican convention last month. U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) joked that McAuliffe had sought to buy the executive office after spotting "Virginia's governorship pop up on eBay."

No one mentioned Deeds.

Tagged: 2009 governor's race, elections, politics, State news

Your Thoughts...

Are you happy that the school year is over?