Warner Leads Gilmore By 30 Points, Poll Finds

GOP-Held U.S. Senate Seat From Va. Is at Stake

By Jennifer Agiesta, Tim Craig

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Former Virginia governor James S. Gilmore III (R) has not gained any traction for his U.S. Senate campaign against Democrat Mark R. Warner during the past year, adding to Democratic hopes that the party will have two Virginia senators next year for the first time since 1970, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Warner, also a former governor, leads Gilmore among likely voters by 61 percent to 31 percent. Warner's 30-point advantage is nearly identical to the margin he held over Gilmore in a Washington Post poll in October, a month before the Republican formally entered the race.

Warner's advantage rests on the six in 10 voters who believe his views on most issues are ideologically aligned with theirs. Far fewer feel that way about Gilmore. About four in 10 think Gilmore's positions are about right, while 31 percent said they are too conservative. One in five said Warner's views are too liberal.

A year ago, many analysts predicted that the campaign to replace retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R) would be one of the most hard-fought Senate races in the country this year.

But Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) decided not to run, and Gilmore nearly lost the nomination to a little-known state legislator, Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William). And the GOP has struggled to put together a well-financed effort against Warner, who left office in 2006 with record-high approval ratings.

The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, shows that Warner has a lead in every region of the state with six weeks left in the campaign.

Warner is ahead by nearly 40 points in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads and has a 30-point lead in central Virginia, which includes Richmond and its suburbs, Gilmore's home political base. Warner also holds a four-point edge in the rural western part of the state, which is heavily Republican. In 2006, Republican George Allen prevailed in the central region with 55 percent of the vote and in the western region with 57 percent, although he lost the statewide race to James Webb.

Warner has support from 97 percent of the voters who identified themselves as Democrats and near-universal support from African Americans (94 percent) and liberals (89 percent).

Gilmore is strong among white evangelical Protestants, who back him 58 percent to 42 percent. In addition, 69 percent of Republicans say they will support Gilmore.

Gilmore, who was governor from 1998 to 2002, is trying to counteract Warner's efforts to reach out to Republicans by linking himself to GOP presidential nominee John McCain. The strategy assumes that the Arizona senator will win Virginia and most of his supporters will vote the party line on Election Day.

But Gilmore is taking a risk, because McCain remains locked in a close contest with Democratic nominee Barack Obama in Virginia. In the poll, Obama holds a three-point edge over McCain among likely voters, reinforcing Virginia's status as a battleground state that could tip the election.

Compounding Gilmore's challenge, a quarter of McCain supporters in Virginia said they plan to vote for Warner, compared with just 2 percent of Obama supporters who said they would back Gilmore. About four in 10 of those who would split their ticket to support McCain and Warner said Gilmore is too conservative for them.

Warner is demonstrating unusual strength for a statewide Democratic candidate among several key groups that often decide elections in Virginia. Independents favor Warner by better than 2 to 1, and he is drawing support from two-thirds of voters who say they are moderate. Warner holds a 14-point lead among white voters, a demographic that often sides with the GOP in statewide races.

Dan Bailey, 25, a contractor from Newport News, said he plans to support McCain and Warner.

"What really makes a difference to me is fiscal responsibility, and I find that John McCain is far more fiscally responsible than Barack Obama," Bailey said. "As far as the Senate race, I find that Gilmore had a chance with the state funds, and they just didn't do it right, while Mark Warner did a fantastic job balancing the budget."

Bailey's comments reflect how Virginia's Senate race has largely centered on the candidates' records as governor, instead of the federal issues each would face in Washington.

Warner, who has a multimillion-dollar campaign advertising budget, has contended that Gilmore nearly bankrupt the state by trying to repeal the car tax. Warner, who succeeded Gilmore, said he inherited a $6 billion budget shortfall that forced him to slash state spending and push through a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004.

Gilmore counters that the state budget was in balance when he left office, noting that the state constitution does not allow for deficit spending.

Warner's message, however, appears to be resonating to a greater extent than Gilmore's. Among voters who lived in Virginia during both administrations, two-thirds say they are supporting the Democrat in the race.

Interviews with nearly a dozen Virginia voters questioned in the poll highlighted how the budget debate — not Warner's and Gilmore's views on federal issues — are shaping their opinions.

Virginia Martin, 52, a special education teacher from Chesapeake, said she is supporting Warner because "he did a very, very good job in office when he took over the financial situation from Gilmore."

"I thought Gilmore misrepresented when he was talking about reducing the car tax," Martin said. "Of course, that sounded great, but he left office with a debt that Mark Warner inherited."

But W. R. Barney, 69, a small businessman from Frederick County, said he is "reluctantly" supporting Gilmore because Warner raised taxes.

"My complaint with Warner is he rammed through a sales tax on Virginians based on a lie," Barney said. "He claimed we were having a budget problem, but he knew there was going to be a surplus."

Almost no voters interviewed could point to a specific federal issue that is causing them to vote for or against Gilmore or Warner.

Warner, for example, is a supporter of abortion rights and has said he is unlikely to vote to confirm a judge who wants to overturn Roe v. Wade. Gilmore opposes abortion rights after the eighth week of pregnancy and has vowed to vote to confirm Supreme Court justices willing to overturn Roe.

Despite those clear differences, voters who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most instances would vote for Gilmore by 48 percent to 41 percent. Those same voters support McCain over Obama by better than 2 to 1.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted Sept. 18-21 among a random sample of 1,001 Virginia adults, including 857 registered voters and 698 likely voters. Results from the full poll and among registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Among likely voters, the margin of error is four points.

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