Va. Republicans Chart a Return to Dominance

By Anita Kumar

Saturday, October 11, 2008

RICHMOND, Oct. 10 -- After years of prominent defeats, Virginia Republicans say they are bracing for more losses in November but think they can reverse the trend as soon as next year by returning to their conservative roots and addressing the financial crisis and other issues.

The party needs to return to core conservative principles and denounce the excessive spending that has permeated Richmond and Washington in recent years, activists say.

"It's a betrayal of our stated philosophy," said Gary Byler, a party leader in Hampton Roads. "After all our blood, sweat and tears, it's just a fundamental betrayal."

Republicans say they need to offer specific ideas for specific issues. Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R), who is running for governor next year, and Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R), who is running for reelection, are trying to do just that. They have teamed up to form an advisory group to help them devise possible solutions to Virginia's problems.

They say they must outline conservative solutions and then get the message out. In the past, they say, the party has failed to do both.

"We have done a lousy job telling our story," McDonnell said.

That was the model the GOP used to inspire voters in the 1980s when Ronald Reagan won the White House and the 1990s when Newt Gingrich and others unveiled the Contract With America, a detailed plan of action for Congress.

But they say that task is difficult while the GOP brand remains tarnished. Republicans expect losses this year.

"If we go out and simply say, 'Vote Republican,' it doesn't work," Bolling said. "We have to get back to who we are. We can't keep doing things the way we have done them."

Both parties are closely watching next month's elections in Virginia to see if the results help further solidify the once-conservative Southern state's gradual blue shift.

Democrats are expected to pick up the seat of retiring Sen. John W. Warner, the House seat being vacated by Rep. Tom Davis and possibly others.

No Democratic presidential candidate has carried Virginia since 1964, but recent polls show Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) locked in an extremely competitive race for Virginia's 13 electoral votes. A Washington Post-ABC News poll last month indicated that likely voters in the state are divided 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain.

James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr., a former Republican state senator from Fairfax who lost his reelection bid last year, describes the current situation as a "Republican malaise."

"It's no longer cool to be Republican," O'Brien said.

Eight years ago, Virginia Republicans controlled four of five statewide offices, including the governor's mansion, and the General Assembly.

But they began losing ground in 2001 and have since lost two successive gubernatorial elections, a high-profile Senate seat in 2006 and the state Senate last year. Sen. George Allen's stunning defeat to newcomer James Webb in 2006 helped Republicans lose control of Congress.

An influx of new voters, particularly in Northern Virginia, and a stronger get-out-the-vote effort have helped Democrats gain ground.

So did national fatigue caused largely by President Bush's sagging approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iraq and disappointment over Republican leaders' handling of the explosion of scandals in Congress. The economic crisis also is helping Democrats this year.

But others attributed the losses to the "arrogance of power." Activists blame elected officials for raising taxes, running up the deficit and spending money on unnecessary items -- a lengthy list that includes everything from foreign aid to early childhood education programs.

In Virginia, former governor Mark R. Warner (D) pushed through a $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004 with help from moderate Republicans. In Washington, the national debt has continued to grow through Republican administrations and stands at almost $9.9 trillion.

Republicans blame the financial industry's meltdown on a nation willing to live off debt and spend beyond its means.

Sen. Ken Cuccinelli II (R-Fairfax), who is running for attorney general next year, said Republicans have been spending like "drunken fools."

That confusion has crucial independent voters supporting Democrats and disgruntled Republicans planning to sit out Election Day.

"The base stayed home. Why bother?" Cuccinelli said. "You vote for Republicans and you get a tax increase."

But Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, the state's second straight Democratic governor, said the Republican Party's troubles have more to do with its lack of solutions than any ideological failures. "I think one of the challenges on the Republican side is the non-ideologue, problem-solver part has gotten smaller, and there have been internal clashes," he said.

Republicans say that their losses initially left the Virginia GOP without the organizational structure and energy needed to win. They have struggled to raise money, swapped leaders four times in as many years and witnessed battles between moderates and anti-tax social conservatives.

But they hope that is changing. Bolling has spent time holding "idea-raisers" across the state to come up with 100 policy goals, including fully eliminating the car tax, upgrading abortion clinic standards and allowing college students and faculty to carry guns on campus.

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), a rising star in the party and a surrogate for McCain on the campaign trail, similarly created the "Solutions Factory" to tout conservative answers, including allowing workers to opt out of Social Security, charging fees on money transfers for illegal immigrants and allowing parents to use vouchers to send their children to any school they want.

Republicans say McCain's "country first" message and his solutions for dealing with what they consider to be the nation's top three issues -- the economy, energy and national security -- are resonating with the base.

McCain was not the first choice for many Republicans, given his views on issues such as stem cell research and campaign finance, but activists have since praised him for reaching out to the party's conservative base and changing his views on some issues, including illegal immigration.

Republicans know they have not had as much energy and enthusiasm as Democrats have in recent years, but they say the atmosphere has improved in the past few months. Many activists say they sense growing excitement and a feeling that the party could be on the brink of a resurgence.

Although they concede that they stand almost no chance of taking back the House or Senate next month, they are now hoping to limit losses to only a few Senate seats and fewer than a dozen House seats nationwide.

"The Republicans really have had a run of bad luck," said Stephen Farnsworth, a political analyst at George Mason University. "But the worst is over."

President Bush is leaving office and conditions in Iraq have improved, and polls show the Democratic-controlled Congress has low approval ratings.

In addition, party leaders hope to capitalize on the momentum from a competitive fight for the White House and widespread enthusiasm for McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whose conservative credentials they consider impeccable.

"Republicans have been slapped upside the head," said Wendell Walker, a self-described conservative Republican from Lynchburg. "This is our wake-up call."

Staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.

Tagged: elections, Republican Party, State news

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