Once Conservative Loudoun Now Reflects Va. as a Whole

By Jonathan Mummolo (Contact)

Thursday, February 21, 2008

When once reliably conservative Loudoun County chose Democrat Timothy M. Kaine for governor in 2005 by nearly the same margin as voters statewide, some suspected a fluke. When the county, like the state, gave a narrow victory to Sen. Jim Webb (D) a year later, people took notice.

But when the fast-growing county nearly mirrored statewide support for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in last week’s presidential primary, it seemed apparent: Loudoun, a combination of Virginia’s traditional and modern elements, had become a political microcosm of the commonwealth. Once a Republican stronghold, the county is now in play, and as goes Loudoun, so goes Virginia, political observers said.

“Loudoun seems a good place to look for indications of how the candidates, how the parties, are faring statewide,” said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University. “You have newcomers, affluent commuters, longtime residents, a large influx of residents. . . . It just looks like the rest of Virginia in a lot of ways.”

Once a nearly all-white, largely Republican county, Loudoun has seen its population explode over the past two decades, more than tripling since 1990. Today, the county of about 270,000 is a mix of young tech workers and lifelong farmers, longtime residents and expanding immigrant communities. It’s a county on the cusp, favoring Democrats in recent elections but still, both sides say, retaining a significant conservative base.

In other words, it’s just like Virginia.

On Feb. 12, Obama won 61.85 percent of the votes in the Loudoun Democratic primary, compared with 63.66 percent statewide, according to unofficial results. On the Republican side, 56.96 percent of the Loudoun vote went to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), compared with 50.04 percent statewide.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee also received relatively strong support in the county, considering his long-shot status, taking 31.79 percent of the GOP vote, an indication that the evangelical community is alive and well in Loudoun, political scientists said. Perhaps most surprising to those familiar with the county’s history, voters in the GOP primary made up just 33 percent of all primary voters — Democrat and Republican — replicating the statewide turnout. In a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president in a general election since 1964, the results turned heads.

Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that although nationwide enthusiasm for Democrats is clearly higher this election cycle, Loudoun’s voters also are frustrated over local issues such as growth and transportation, driving them to take a chance on so-called “outsider” candidates such as Obama.

“It just shows that, once again, the issues that are driving Loudoun voters are not necessarily the traditional ‘D’ and ‘R’ issues, and in this particular instance, the opportunity to endorse a candidate who represents change, whatever that exactly may mean still, is where Loudoun is,” Holsworth said.

State Democratic leaders have gotten that message and focused their recent campaigns on such issues. And they said that although they are not putting Loudoun in the blue column yet, they think recent elections have proved it’s a winnable county.

“I think the Democratic Party, both certainly in the state and now nationally, has appealed to suburban voters by emphasizing health care, education and other quality-of-life issues,” said Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. “With the right message and candidate, we can win in Loudoun.”

But some Republicans argue that recent election results can be explained as a temporary shift resulting from unpopular national issues such as the Iraq war.

Del. Joe T. May (R-Loudoun), whose district includes western Loudoun, said he has found through private polls that 20 percent of his district is made up of independent voters.

“I really think those are independent voters which happen to be swinging blue or voting blue in the short term,” he said.

Still, May acknowledged that the county’s politics are not where they used to be.

“I would expect [Loudoun to remain in] the middle,” he said. “I may not have thought that a year or two ago, but again, Loudoun — I’m thinking back to 1994 — it was about as red as it could be.”

It’s a trend social scientists have observed in the region before. A couple of decades ago, Fairfax County was viewed as representative of the state, Holsworth said.

“Fifteen years ago, Fairfax was the bellwether,” he said. “Now Loudoun, Prince William, are far more of a bellwether in Virginia than Fairfax, which has become blue.”

The broad mix of viewpoints among Loudoun residents today is probably a result, in large part, of the steady stream of newcomers who have caused significant demographic shifts.

In 1990, the county was 87.7 percent white, compared with 76 percent statewide, census data show. As of 2006, the most recent census data available, whites made up about 67 percent of both the county, and the state. The county has gotten slightly younger, too, with its median age declining from 33.6 in 2000 to 33.2 in 2006.

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Primary Voting in Loudoun

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Erin Getsy, with 1-year-old daughter Claire, after voting at Emerick Elementary School in Purcellville. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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At Ashburn Elementary School, Ambreen Ansari casts her vote using a touch-screen voting machine. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Voting at Emerick Elementary School in Purcellville, Susan Lockhart, 42, brought her daughter Rachel, 12, to watch the voting process. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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At an ID check at Belmont Ridge Middle School in Leesburg, voter Dottie Stackhouse (left) shows identification before voting. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Elections officer Joan Velar checks voters' IDs at Park View High School in Sterling. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Lisa Merritt votes at Emerick Elementary School in Purcellville. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Sterling resident Amy Mirra votes by paper ballot at Park View High School. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Standing outside Belmont Ridge Middle school in Leesburg, Obama supporters Beverly Johnson and Dwight G. Whitted open packages of hand warmers to put inside their gloves. They had been out greeting voters since the early morning. (Tracy A. Woodward)

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Voting at Park View High School in Sterling, Jessie Chambes, 80, and Mark Vayda, 82, brave the cold outside. (Michael Williamson)

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With these changes have come once unimagined political outcomes such as last week’s primaries, made possible by voters such as Shahzad Ansari, 38, a software developer originally from Pakistan, who said he chose Obama because Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) seemed too conventional.

“To me, she appears as part of the old guard, special interests,” the Ashburn resident said.

Janice Schell of Purcellville, a self-described conservative Christian who has lived in Loudoun for 19 years, voted for Huckabee, partly because of his non-mainstream stance on taxes and his antiabortion views.

“People are usually afraid to advance those kind of drastic changes,” Schell said of Huckabee’s support for a flat sales tax in place of income tax. “I kind of thought that was brave of him.”

Many young adults around the county, such as first-time voter Victor Aragon, 20, of Ashburn, seem to still be forming their political identities.

“I was raised Republican,” he said. “My dad’s a Republican.”

But on Tuesday, he cast his vote for Clinton. So is he a Democrat?

“I guess I am now,” he said.

Staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.

Tagged: politics

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