Independents Courted Aggressively

Both Parties Pursue Nonaligned Voters, Whose Actions Are Seen as Bellwether for November

By Michael Laris

Monday, February 11, 2008

Bob Mosely is not tethered to a party. The Newport News father of five calls himself an independent. He twice voted for President Bush. Now he's deciding between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Virginia voters do not register by party, and voters who show up Tuesday can choose which primary to take part in.

After one of his young daughters became seriously ill, Mosely, an evangelical pastor, started carefully listening to what politicians had to say about health care. His family has struggled financially, and navigating the system was "not a good experience, on top of your daughter having cancer," he said. He likes what he hears from Democrat Obama about making health insurance affordable for everyone.

But Mosely, who grew up in a military family, also respects the Arizona Republican's principled stand on the Iraq war, even though he thinks the U.S. effort is unrealistic and heartbreaking. "You know what he's going to do — stay the course. I'm not thrilled with that idea. But I'm a little bit impressed. That's the unpopular position. To me, that's . . . John McCain," he said.

Mosely, 51, is taking the final days before the primary to make his decision. He's relying on the Web, e-mail alerts, his gut and on God. "I'm going to be saying, 'God help me to make a good decision about this. ... I want to impact my country for good, and I don't want to throw my vote away.' "

The mind of Virginia's independent voter is a place where party labels, and sometimes certainty itself, are suspect. It's also the rare place where participants in the political process readily volunteer that they might be wrong as they make complex and often deeply felt calculations. What Virginia independent voters decide on Tuesday — even which primary they choose to vote in — could be a bellwether for November.

Conversations in recent days with voters across the state who identified themselves as independent demonstrated deep anger over the war, a concern about the economy and an absence of broad affection for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). The independents who are struggling between Obama and McCain point to a dynamic that could have broad implications for the November general election.

"You win or lose Virginia almost every time based on who wins the independent vote," said Ray Allen Jr., a Republican strategist who has advised candidates in numerous statewide races. "There's not enough Republicans to win the state without independents. There's not enough Democrats to win the state without independents. There just isn't."

Democratic and Republican strategists count on 20 percent or more of Virginia voters being independents. In a Washington Post survey in October, 34 percent of registered voters identified themselves as independent. In the 2004 Democratic primaries, self-identified independents made up 22 percent of all Democratic primary voters, and in 2000, they made up 29 percent of all Republican primary voters.

Both parties are aggressively courting independents, although McCain's success in knocking out most of his rivals has focused more attention on the Democratic contest.

"We're open for business, and we would encourage you to come on over to our side, and one of the ways to do that is put your toes in the water," said Virginia Democratic Party Chairman C. Richard Cranwell. "We'll see if we can move you over to the blue dance floor."

Some independents bend to extremes to avoid being tagged with one of the worst labels imaginable: predictable.

Take Gabrielle Robinson, 35, a church administrative assistant who lives outside the northwestern Virginia city of Harrisonburg, who doesn't want a female president.

"They'll probably come after me with pitchforks for even saying such a thing," said Robinson, a former supporter of Democrat John Edwards, who dropped out of the race last month. But she has her eyes on the United States' terrorist foes. "I just think we need a strong male leader for the country right now. I'm not saying it would never be okay for a woman to be president, but not at this time. . . . We would not be as threatening to them, maybe, if we had a woman president," she said.

Or Larry Jones, 48, an African American public school cafeteria deliveryman from Hampton Roads, who said he wouldn't vote for a black president. "I just don't believe in it. . . . Things would just be tore up," he said. He can think of two exceptions: himself, and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. "I would probably have voted for him, because I believe he would have been for both races."

Character and issues count more for many.

Linda Smith, 57, has worked as a librarian and a floral designer and served as a caregiver for her parents and grandmother. The Leesburg resident said she is concerned about the economy. She has seen a drop-off in help-wanted ads and observed shoppers leaving the mall empty-handed, and she received a notice from the assessor's office last week that the value of her house had dropped $34,000.

She thinks McCain will make an argument that he is the toughest choice to fight terrorism. But she's deciding between Clinton and Obama.

"In a way, Americans are somewhat selfish right now. I include myself," she said. "The focus seems to be more on the economy, because we are in a recession, than on security."

She voted for presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, but she is drawn to the Illinois senator.

"I think Hillary has the experience of working in the guts of the Senate ... but I really do wonder if maybe we don't need another Kennedyesque spirit. ... I'd like [young people] to experience what I felt when Kennedy laid out possibilities for us — the possibility for greatness."

Polly Ransone, a reading tutor for elementary school students, said she and her daughter seem to have upended their presumed demographic roles. She's 52, and her daughter just graduated from college.

"We've gotten kind of swapped around. She should probably be the Obama fan, and I should be the Hillary fan, but it's the other way around," said Ransone, who lives in Accomack County on Virginia's eastern shore.

"I think she's just thrilled that there's a woman running for president. She thinks all the world will be right if a woman is president," Ransone said. "I know it won't be. I work with women. I am a woman. I know how we are."

Ira Ronald Long said he tries to "look at three sides of every picture." The retired mail worker at Virginia Tech said that he had hoped to vote for Edwards and that Obama promises too much.

"Some of his talks about, 'I can do this, and I can do that — bring jobs back from overseas,' I think he's stretching things sometimes. It's not going to be just as easy as cutting a water spigot off," said Long, 63.

He is leaning toward Clinton. "The one thing I like about her is the one thing that bothers me," Long said. "I liked a lot of things her husband did in office. Whether or not it would be a good thing that two Clintons are in there, I don't know."

And Republican candidate Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, faced some skepticism from independents.

"I just can't stand anybody on those far ends," said Kris Perini, 29, who lives outside Richmond. She included Obama and Clinton in that category, too, but she was particularly turned off by Huckabee's negative comments about gays. She sees the attack on McCain by conservative talkers as a plus.

"I think that's kind of what I like about him," said Perini, who worked in social services and attended law school before staying home with her 17-month-old son. "My husband is an ultraconservative ... and calls me a liberal all the time."

Staff polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

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