Loudoun Building Boom Buckles Under Economic Strain, For Now
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
If there were any doubt that Loudoun County's long-standing reputation for rapid growth and affluence is changing, consider this: During the first six months of the year, the number of foreclosures in Loudoun almost matched the number of new homes permitted.
From January through June, there were 956 foreclosures in Loudoun. During the same period, the county authorized the construction of 1,172 new homes, a 20 percent reduction from last year and about two-thirds less than at the height of the building frenzy four years ago.
Although the numbers hardly paint a complete picture, they illustrate a dramatic turnaround in a community that grabbed national headlines because of its wealthy, fast-growing population.
Just a few years ago, government hearings were packed with residents dismayed by the transformation of their rural county into a buzzing suburban hub. Now, county officials are more likely to field complaints of next-door neighbors disappearing overnight, leaving behind overgrown lawns and the threat of sinking home values.
"There's a lot to worry about," Supervisor James G. Burton (I-Blue Ridge) said. "I'm somewhat pleased that the number of building permits is down. But we've got a real problem in certain pockets of the community where the empty houses are leaving a bad impression of the neighborhood."
Rich Lipski
Tall grass and weeds overcome several unoccupied homes in a state of disrepair in Sterling Park.
It is a pattern repeated in other parts of suburban Virginia that experienced a growth boom in recent years. Prince William County, which was among the 50 fastest-growing counties in the nation four years ago according to the Census Bureau, registered about 3,600 foreclosures from January through June of this year. A similar turnaround has occurred in Stafford County, which also was on the top 50 list that year.
"Those areas were hot and had the most transactions. There were lots and lots of mortgages taken out," said John McClain, deputy director at George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis. "Unfortunately, many of those mortgages were subprime."
At the peak of the building boom in 2003, Loudoun issued more than 6,600 residential building permits, the final authorization needed for a builder to construct a house, townhouse or condominium. A year later, the Census Bureau rated Loudoun the nation's fastest-growing large county. Today, at 280,000, the county's population is more than triple what it was in 1990.
Many residents and officials say that the 2004 growth rate was not sustainable and that it has led to crowded roads and schools and rising tax bills. They say the recent drop in building has been a good thing for Loudoun, giving the county time to catch up by constructing schools, fire stations and other needed facilities.
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But the corresponding plunge in home values and the spate of foreclosures has caused some worries because of their impact on real estate tax revenue.
"We continue to need the respite" from new home construction, said Ben Mays, Loudoun's deputy chief financial officer. "You don't want such a slowdown that you have a tax problem, but a slowdown isn't in and of itself a bad thing for us right now."
Few think the issue of growth has vanished from Loudoun for good. Indeed, the most recent figures show home values in Prince William and Loudoun creeping higher, suggesting that the housing market might have hit bottom there. In Loudoun, tens of thousands of homes have been approved but have yet to be built. Many predict that builders will take advantage of that backlog when the economy improves.
Mays and others say Dulles International Airport, Loudoun's proximity to Washington job centers, Metrorail's proposed extension into Ashburn and Tysons Corner's planned redevelopment will help the county's economy — and the housing market — bounce back.
But for the moment, many Loudoun residents aren't seeing cranes and bulldozers out their windows. Rather, they are seeing "For Sale" signs on their neighbors' yards with the word "FORECLOSURE" dangling on a plaque below.
In the past few months, there have been two foreclosures on Mike Keeney's Sterling street, one next door and one across the street. In one case, the residents moved out in the middle of the night, he said. Although lawn crews occasionally come to trim the grass, "the one next door is getting a little ratty," he said.
But Keeney, who sits on the county's Planning Commission, says he is not eager to return to the days when it seemed like subdivisions were cropping up overnight.
"We have a couple of applications [for new developments] in the works or coming down the mill this fall," he said. As far as the county's growth goes, he said, "I know it's going to rear its head again."
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I grew up in Sterling in the 70s/80s. Nice little middle class community back then, very well kept. Went back a few months ago and was stunned to see what a dump it had become. Boarded up homes, foreclosures everywhere, illegal immigrant boarding houses all over, pretty sad sight.
Posted by gmu92 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 2:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
There is no illegal immigrant problem in Sterling.
Posted by OhTheHumanity (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 4 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Just 6 yrs ago, before the illegal invasion impacted our area in earnest, Sterling was a nice, clean, low crime, modest middle class community. Today it's decayed to the point where recovery would be difficult. I believe the Fairfax proposal of criminalizing overcrowding could be effective on that front but ultimately it's not going to change the mindset of the Nomad like tendencies of these folks who could care less about our values, standards, morals and lifestyles. They and their 12 roommates have no desire to fit in with the community. Anyone that has experienced the misery of living next/near to a boarding house can testify to their wretched lifestyle and how it impacts everybody's quality of life in the neighborhood, not to mention safety and property values.
Posted by hunter340 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 5:45 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Sounds like the "no growthers" have finally gotten their wish.
Posted by foobar2 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 6:42 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Dear foobar2 - sounds more like the old "development pays for itself" was the biggest snow job (oops, no pun intended) of all.
Posted by quietobserver (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 10:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
During the first six months of the year, the number of foreclosures in Loudoun almost matched the number of new homes permitted.
Is a 20 percent difference an "almost match?"
Posted by charli3601 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 10:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Your greedy politicians and developers created this mess. Cannot pass the blame to other people or economic conditions.
Posted by Tupac_Goldstein (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 11:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)
They should allow *no* new houses to be built until the backlog disappears. There is no reason that 1,172 prospective homebuyers cannot pick from among the region's current offerings to reduce supply. Building more houses does not help current homeowners at all, which should be the focus of the BOS.
Posted by Justthefacts (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 12:03 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Smart growth!
Hat's off to the gutless politicians, the souless developers and moronic home buyers for destroying a county for the sake of a dollar.
Rest easy and know that your children and grand children will be saddled with the consequences of your greed and stupidity.
Posted by fdfdfd (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 12:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Too bad the BoS squandered the windfall. Since they have no fiscal responsibility at all, you get a huge tax hike in a recession year.
Posted by Hoqenishy (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 1:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I used to live in Sterling. I'm glad I moved. I used to live in Fairfax. I'm glad I moved from there too.
Posted by clancrs (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 1:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
clancrs: We're glad you moved, too.
Posted by foobar2 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 1:43 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Loudoun county was nice even in 2002 but too much growth, Illegal people, overcrowding has made the county less attractive. The loudoun county people shud vote so that no new houses are built and no more trees are cut. Its been amazing from a rural county to a duplicate of Fairfax county ..
Posted by pp1123 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 2:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Bring back the Republicans. times were good then
Posted by tom31p (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 2:17 p.m. (Suggest removal)
tom31p,
Your post caused the biggest laugh I've had all day. That party caused what you have NOW. I hope you were being sarcastic.
Posted by jjcmadison (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 2:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The Republicans caused this mess in the first place, now the Democrats will get a black eye trying to fix an unfixable mess.
As for illegals, I've heard most of those rounded up at Lansdowne were simply released and are now working in different places. It was all a "show". Why weren't they ALL deported?
Posted by GenuineRisk (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 2:46 p.m. (Suggest removal)
(This comment was removed by the site staff.)
Posted by wbrownler2 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 3:27 p.m.
GenuineRisk, you mention that Democrats are now in control and then wonder why the Lansdowne illegals weren't deported? Yes the Republicans have the developers as their pet constituency - and the Democrats have constituents who are ultra liberal on illegal immigration.
For one, Stevens Miller. This is the Supervisor who just last week pitched a fit in order to change the purpose of a committee from "serving Loudoun citizens" to "serving Loudoun residents."
Posted by Justthefacts (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 7:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
so, who here can verify that "these people" are illegal? Anybody check their status? Nope...you just assumed huh? As a diversion from the mess of the Iraq war, lets focus on Illegals all of a sudden...Unfortunately anybody thats looks like what u see on tv, brown skin hispanic, must be illegal. And of course too many brown skin people means the property value is down? I heard that from a white dude years ago. He said it like nothing...'didnt want hispanics in his neighborhood...property values goes down'. Thats a shame you feel that way. Again, white america thinks its supreme in some way...some nerve you people have. you are illegal too you know? did u ever compensate the native american for this land? Nope! did u ever compensate the slaves that built it up? Nope! U benefit from cheap or free labor, get crazy rich from it and then complain you dont want them in your neighborhoods...oh boo hoo poor little white man...boo hoo
Posted by info (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 8:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Wow, I am white, so I got all this free labor? Which century are you living in?
Not wanting property values to decline is an issue of economics, and not the color of someone's skin. If the house next door becomes a rooming house, the folks there are not the best, your house suffers a decline in value. Not because of skin color, but because of the actions of folks next door.
Posted by Billy1999 (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 8:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
true...but the assumption that someone is illegal? based on what? I doubt if they were white. I know alot of different people and I often hear whites refer to hispanics as illegal...even though they dont know them. its the conditioning of the media...its pumped into your head everyday...the image and the word 'illegal'. and long before the new war, I have heard whites says that latinos, blacks, etc. (non-white) bring property values down...yes i can see if they arent keeping the property up thats one thing. I see the comments, 'house full of illegals'. how do u know its not a big family & everyone is working or going to school? you wouldnt say it about a white family...illegal, crime, and so on. thats the state of our society still. dont take it personal...im living in this century but the previous centuries linger on. plenty of business owners of today have made lots of $$$ of cheap labor, 100 years ago it was free. yea, deport them all and see how we all suffer. stop assuming by the look., if you dont know them, shut the heck up.
Posted by info (anonymous) on August 6, 2008 at 8:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Yes, let's get as politically correct as we can, and that will make the problem of 30 people living in one house go away. The 13 cars parked on the lawn? Don't dare point that out for fear of hurting someones feelings ...
Posted by OhTheHumanity (anonymous) on August 7, 2008 at 5:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
info, the assumption is based on probability. We do not have scores of illegal Scottish immigrants flooding our nation. The plain truth is that no other demographic comes close to comprising the majority of the illegal population.
... and please, stop with the "you're all illegals" argument. If we really want to get into digging up the past, I could make some pretty awful remarks about your demographic.
Posted by Hoqenishy (anonymous) on August 7, 2008 at 6:40 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Recently we moved from Northern Virginia to Sw FLorida. The numbers in this article are very small as a percentage of homes in Northern Virginia. There is blood running in the streets of SW Florida. Take it in perspective.
Posted by mcascio10 (anonymous) on August 7, 2008 at 9:50 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I moved to Sterling Park in '78. Maybe the County should have stopped growth back then. Probably 90% of you who posted above wouldn't even be here now! When is the right time to stop growth, after you get in right? Back then we shopped in Fairfax, worked everywhere but Loudoun, had to go 20 minutes away to find a decent resturant. Kids left Loudoun becuase there were no jobs here. Focus on the negatives of growth if you will but there have been many positives. We can live, shop, eat and work locally. And oh by the way it is the dreaded developers who paid for it all, including many, many public improvements like all of the improvements to Rt 28 which was a 2 lane road when I got here!
The Park started getting ethnic diversity about 15 years ago and it was a welcome change. Many owners, regardless of ethinic background, do a great job of maintaining their property. Considering the Park has no HOA I think most of it is still a very attractive area to live. If you think we have problems visit many of the small communities in the northeast or the 'rust belt'. They would love to have our problems.
Posted by cadet511 (anonymous) on August 7, 2008 at 12:19 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Comparing Sterling Park with the way it was 20 years ago, or with parts of Florida today isn't really relevant. The relevant comparison is really between Sterling Park of today and the expectations of the residents that leave here NOW. If current residents have higher expectations than those of 20 years ago, or those who live in parts of Florida, there's nothing wrong with that. Residents of a community have a right to want that community to fulfill their expectations. If it does not, then the community ends up losing those residents to areas that WILL fulfill their expectations. It's just natural.
Posted by Rachelfriend (anonymous) on August 11, 2008 at 7 a.m. (Suggest removal)
yrdy
Posted by sdfg (anonymous) on August 18, 2008 at 5:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
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