Democrats Look for Vindication

Herring’s ’06 Win No Proof of County’s Shift, Republicans Say

By Jonathan Mummolo (Contact)

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Democratic State Sen. Mark Herring’s landslide victory last year, in a district that had for years been led by a Republican, fueled speculation that traditionally red Loudoun County, like the rest of Northern Virginia, was turning purple — maybe even outright blue.

But observers say the real test for Herring, and of whether political change has really reached Loudoun, could come Nov. 6.

Herring’s ascendance in the 33rd District — which includes populous eastern Loudoun and a part of western Fairfax County — occurred during a special January election to fill the seat vacated when Republican William C. Mims became chief deputy attorney general. Politics was far from people’s mind. The campaign lasted just weeks, and turnout was 13.7 percent.

Next month, opposed by conservative Republican Patricia Phillips, a nutrition consultant from Sterling and former head of the Virginia chapter of the Christian group Concerned Women for America, Herring will face a full-scale electoral test. His performance might serve as a bellwether of Democrats’ lasting prospects in a county once thought of as reliably conservative but undergoing rapid and dramatic change.

“Here’s an opportunity for the Democrats to achieve a solid hold on a formerly Republican seat, and that would be quite an accomplishment,” said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University. “Just several years ago, nobody would have been thinking about having this conversation. It was widely assumed that Loudoun County was solid Republican and would stay that way.”

Since 2000, Loudoun’s population has grown by more than 50 percent, Census Bureau estimates show, particularly in the eastern half. With the boom came an influx of new political views, ethnic backgrounds and congestion formerly unimagined in the once-rural county.

So Democrats had ample reason to view Herring’s victory, which came amid wins in Loudoun for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and U.S. Sen. James Webb (D) as well as a two-seat gain for their party among Loudoun’s five state delegates, as a sure sign that Northern Virginia’s partisan shift had finally touched Loudoun.

“That was an extremely important election, not only to Mark but to state Democrats,” said Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.

But Republicans maintain that describing Herring’s victory as a permanent shift is an overstatement.

Photo: Rich Lipski

Loudoun County residents cast their votes in November 2005 inside Philomont Firehouse 8. The county, often thought of as being solidly Republican, has showed some support recently for Democratic candidates. (FILE PHOTO)

“A special election is never a determiner of a trend in the community,” said Loudoun County Supervisor Mick Staton (Sugarland), who was defeated by Herring last year in the state Senate race and is running for reelection to the county board. “November’s election will be a very strong indicator” of how strong the Republican Party is in the county, he added.

Phillips agreed. “It was a special election,” she said of Herring’s victory. “When it’s a general-election situation, Republicans have a shot.”

Dan Scandling, a spokesman for Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.), said too much has been made of the GOP setbacks in the county.

“I think the demise of the Republican Party in Loudoun is grossly exaggerated,” Scandling said. “Congressman Wolf easily won Loudoun County last year, while George Allen lost it. So it could be as much the candidate as much as anything. I’m not disparaging [Allen], but I think it’s just wildly exaggerated. . . . Yeah, there are a lot of new people moving in, but I don’t think they all have D’s after their name.”

Loudoun voters’ apparently fickle nature indicates the county’s search for a political identity, experts said. Such a search typically occurs when such issues as growth and transportation, not normally viewed as red or blue, become dominant and could explain the consistent partisan swing of the county Board of Supervisors. “Growth is a very powerful emerging issue that doesn’t fall clearly along partisan divides,” said Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University. “It’s a recipe for uncertainty and a certain degree of openness.”

Herring, a lawyer and former county supervisor, said his win was evidence that Democrats are focusing more on practical issues than socially divisive ones.

“People looked and said, ‘Okay . . . if Mark Herring can win in the 33rd, there’s something that’s happening here,’ ” he said. “I tend to look at it more as Democratic candidates are working on the issues that people want them to be working on.”

Loudoun’s other Senate race — a three-way battle to replace retiring Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester) — also has potential to back, or buck, the “Changing Loudoun” theory.

In 2003, Potts was reelected handily in the 27th District, which also includes Clarke and Frederick counties as well as parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties. His opponent was Herring, who got about 41 percent of the vote.

But Potts has not been part of the Republican establishment. A maverick, he has decried his own party for its embrace of antiabortion and other socially conservative stances and earlier this year said that both candidates in his district’s GOP primary were “to the right of Attila the Hun.” He has even toyed with the idea of endorsing a Democrat in the race.

Potts says the historically GOP district is up for grabs.

“One of the misconceptions about this district is that it’s a far right, absolutely reliable Republican district, and that’s changed dramatically,” Potts said. “I think it’s a tossup. If the election were today, a couple hundred votes” could decide it, he said.

As long as demographic shifts persist and nonpartisan issues continue to be in the forefront of voters’ minds, determining where Loudoun stands politically might be difficult.

“Loudoun is going through tremendous growing pains,” Scandling said. “The county’s really wrestling with how to protect its past and also deal with the future.”

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