Erica Garman at 1:45 p.m., June 18, 2009 (8 comments)
There are indications that the real estate market tide is turning and may, in fact, be showing signs of favoring sellers.
Although the total of Loudoun homes sold year-to-date in 2009 has been fewer than those sold during the same period in 2008, median sales prices in the county have increased, according to Dulles Area Association of Realtors marketing consultant Rosemary deButts.
deButts's analysis (click here to view her full report) shows that median sales prices of homes in Loudoun increased $10,000 in May to $325,000. That's up $34,000 from January.
Average closing prices in Loudoun are up as well. The selling prices of single family homes are up 6 percent, attached home prices are up 7 percent and condo prices are up a whopping 43 percent from what they were in January.
A decrease in the number of the homes on the market may explain this uptick: available inventory has been significantly trending downward for the last four months, deButts said, "which clearly signals an end to the buyer's market."
In January 2008, there was a 13.6 month supply of homes. Now, she said, there is a 4.4 month supply.
"That's huge," she added.
Another clue that the Loudoun market is turning is an increase in the ratio of the average sales closing price to the original list price, a figure that shows how much a seller is willing to negotiate in price. In early 2008, deButts said, that ratio was around 88 percent, but during the last 13 months it's been more than 90 percent.
DAAR CEO Jeanette Newton is cautious, however, about calling these signs an indicator of an imminent seller's market.
"It's true we're seeing multiple contracts on homes and inventory is down," she said in a phone interview today. "But many prospective buyers may simply be sitting on their homes, waiting for the prices to go up more."
"They're not willing to take such a price cut right now," she added.
And foreclosures and short sales continue to dominate the Loudoun market, accounting for 49 percent of the total closings in May.
I asked two local real estate agents what trends they're seeing in eastern and western LoCo.
Real estate consultant and realtor Danilo Bogdanovic said that well-priced properties in eastern Loudoun are now getting multiple offers and sometimes, bidding wars.
"They're selling within weeks - if not days - of going on the market," he said, "with many properties getting two, five and even more than 10 offers."
And in parts of Leesburg and Sterling, Bogdanovic said, savvy buyers are once again jumping into the game in search of a profit.
"We're seeing investors getting back into the market buying up distressed properties," he said, "and doing rehab on them and then either flipping them for a 10 to 30 percent profit or renting them out as part of their long-term investment plan."
In western Loudoun, said realtor Heather Elias, inventory is low, and sales prices are still showing a median price decline.
"It's like dropping a pebble into the water," she explained. "As prices in Sterling, Ashburn and Leesburg continue to go up, we'll see prices begin to rise in places like Purcellville, Round Hill and Hamilton."
But for now, Elias said, if buyers can get a good deal on a property closer to the city (read: a shorter commute), they'll look to the eastern part of the county for a home first.
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The Dulles Area Association of Realtors said this? I'm shocked. (Er, not at all).
Posted by dingus5 (anonymous) on June 18, 2009 at 2:59 p.m. (Suggest removal)
The peak of the market was in 2005. We have not seen the foreclosures from 2010 yet and there will be tons more of those as many people bought on the weird 5 year interest arm loans. This is only a small "high" before it dips again and it is going to be a big dip.
Posted by llm (anonymous) on June 19, 2009 at 10:38 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Zillow.com still has my home going down the tubes month after month. Let me know when its worth $1.00.
Posted by AlbyVA (anonymous) on June 22, 2009 at 2:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Not even close. Alt-A loans and subprime loans were still being written as recently as 2006. These have five year resets, so look beyond 2011 for a turnaround in the market.
Posted by gieriscm1 (anonymous) on July 13, 2009 at 1:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
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